03-19-2020: The Data Are Very Clear

As you know, I live by my quantitative analysis algorithms. Not only is what I am seeing unprecedented in my lifetime, there is nothing in the entirety of the stock market's history to compare it to. The very fabric of our economic structure is under attack by a microscopic organism that is single-handedly bringing our country and its normal way of life to its knees.


None of us know the true impact of a national shelter-in-place way of life for an indefinite period will be on our economy. We have no idea, yet, how our country will weather the health issues that are growing exponentially. Just today, I got a call from a physician who is in one of the hot-spots in the US. He wants me to manage some of his capital and in the course of the conversation, he gave me a 30-second opinion of what he sees happening in the next few months. It was not encouraging. I wanted to ask more of him, but he had to get right back to his patients.


Certainly, we are all praying for those who are afflicted with this China virus and we are all hoping to avoid getting exposed to it until there is a treatment available. These are extraordinary times.


I want to stay focused right now on your portfolio(s). We started the day mostly in cash across the board. My data/algos tell me the odds significantly favor a continuation of a bear-trend, although we have not yet seen the 200dma set a down-trend, yet. It will take at least one more week before we can see a full-on bear-market investment bias condition... assuming, of course, that the market doesn't suddenly become bullish.


About 45 minutes before the close today, I put some of your capital back to work in inverse ETFs. Today's rather anemic move to the upside did not signal a change in trend. Indeed, I liked the fact that the market managed to make it through an entire day without a record high or low. The after-hours market is down quite a bit at this writing, which is good for our trades. Of course, what counts is the trend and how stable (or unstable) it will be.


Speaking of which... Some of you have been asking me to explain why I haven't been 100% in the market on the short side over the past month. I am working on a couple of slides to explain how we are where we are and why. As soon as I can, I'll put together a short video on this. I think it will help you understand how the data, the rules and the need to avoid undue risk comes together in our investment strategies.


The good news is, you are massively beating the market. Some of you are up nearly as much as the market is down. One of these days, the market will bottom, but until it does, we want to capitalize on the down-trend... and we are.


Stay safe... avoid crowds... assume everyone is infected... wash your hands.


Mike

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