04-09-2020: At 8:30 AM EDT today, the Paradigm Shifted, on a Tectonic Scale

I guess I can see the logic... in a sort of twisted, upside down, inside out world, this makes perfect sense. One way or the other, the government plus the FED are going to make sure... darn sure, as they say here in Texas... that we are going to recover from a virtual total economic collapse and they have the money to make sure a complete recovery is exactly what we will get.

From mom/pop pizzerias to the airlines to the cruise lines to local and state municipal bonds... the government has got their backsides covered. If you own a business (of literally any size), the US Fed/Congress/Treasury will write you a check big enough to guarantee you stay in business and continue paying your employees.

Yes, we now have 16,000,000 people unemployed in this country and the odds favor that number getting much, much larger.

Yes, corporate earnings, for the most part will be really bad for this quarter and much worse the next quarter.

Yes, it is true that business is so bad that most companies are providing zero guidance for the rest of this year.

Yes, in a normal world, these facts would precipitate a massive sell-off in the stock market. But, what happened today? The market moved higher. And, it can all be attributed to Uncle Sugar... the Fed and the Government.

Some would say this is just a bear market rally and that a massive retest of the lows is right around the corner. Could be, but that is not nearly so likely now as it was at 8:29 this morning.

So, this is where I am at this writing: I have moved from a bear-bias to a bull-bias, but I am still wary of this market and know that it is still possible that we are just in a bear market rally. I am 30% long in Tactical Growth in fundamentally strong, up-trending stocks, 30% long in Total Market in 1x index ETFs, 20% long in a 2x ETF in ULTRA, 30% long in some very high-yielding Closed End Funds in Diversified Income, and 40% long in 2x index ETFs and a couple of very high-flying stocks. The rest is in cash. And, I have decently tight stops on everything.

Come Monday, if the market still looks to be on a sugar high, I will likely be buying more as I leg into this 'recovery' market.

We have a 3-day weekend in front of us. Happy Easter, by the way! Most of us will be celebrating Easter at home this year. Stay safe out there!

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