05-29-2020: Everyone in the pool!!

Oops... guess we can't say that right now. Not sure you can swim with a bio-mask on anyway. But, I'm still excited for our clients today and that's the reference for "Everyone in the pool!" All of my clients made money today.

Today was one of our biggest one-day gains in client accounts, ever. Depending on the strategy, the returns today ranged from a low of 0.23% to a high of +2.54%, depending on the model. Most of my client accounts made well over +2.3% just today. Would love to keep that kind of gain moving forward, especially since the S&P 500 was up only about 0.48%. Any time you can beat the market by more than 4 times in a single day with an entire portfolio, is a good, good day.

We have had a tough week and to end the week on this kind of note is more than icing on the cake.

Well... we all waited with bated breath (guess that's better than waiting with baited breath, but I digress), for the Pres to tell us he is lowering the boom (or not) on China today. In anticipation of the market reacting badly to the news, I had raised stops way, way up in our Tactical Growth model, locking in profits if the wheels fell off the market. But, quite the opposite occurred... the holdings we have in the portfolios reacted extremely favorably to the Trump news conference. Some, like ZM in ULTRA-MAX (+9.57%) and DOCU in Tactical Growth (+9.62%), had stellar moves higher. Days like today make my job a LOT more fun!! I love making money for my clients.

A quick note to my ULTRA and ULTRA-MAX clients... I'll be sending you a special email this weekend that I think you're really going to like.

So, you may be asking... "Just where does this market go next, after the big up-day today?" All I can tell you is this (and it is a fact, as opposed to opinion, which follows next): The current trend in the market will continue exactly (to the second) until it doesn't. Right now, the trend is bullish and that means I know for a fact that this bullish trend will continue until it doesn't and when that day/hour/minute/second occurs, we will move to cash and get ready for the next trend, which will then continue until it doesn't. I know, this is becoming a broken-record (we don't actually have those any more, do we?) refrain from me, but new readers need to know this fact and you long-time readers, need reminding from time-to-time.

Now for the sage, well-educated, all-knowing, professional opinion of where the market is headed... in other words, here is my best guess...

  1. The trend is bullish and while I haven't see this week's quantitative analysis (will get that tomorrow afternoon), I suspect there will be more bullish signals this week than last week.

  2. The economy is likely in far worse shape than the market is anticipating, but as Uncle Sugar (the Fed) said today, the "Fed is strongly committed to using its tools..." Let me translate... We'll bail out big companies and, big banks, indirectly through bond purchases with unlimited sugar. And, we will buy equities as needed to keep the stock market from crashing through ETF purchases (and likely more than that). So, there is (for now) a floor in this market that will likely keep the market from tumbling into a depression-like pit.

  3. Even though a vaccine being created is not a fait accompli, the market will continue to think it will and will surge higher on each new glimmer of hope that a vaccine for all is just around the corner.

  4. Not until after the election this fall, will the market begin to deal with reality, so the odds favor a sideways market to slightly bullish, for now. My only caveat to this is the market may wake up from its vaccine-induced, aided by unlimited sugar, coma at any time and then we might see the stock market actually reflect the reality that this economy is in really bad shape with 40+ million unemployed and bad earnings reports on the horizon.

  5. But, for now, I suspect we will see the market chug along with two steps forward and only one backward for the next few months.

It would seem that we have found a sweet-spot in the market with the holdings we have in play and I have a few more that are looking very attractive and my add them to one or more of the portfolios this coming week, as long as the current trend continues.

Have a great weekend and stay safe out there!

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