07-09-2018: The Plan

If you are a client of mine, you know that we've had a very good week (so far... one more day to go). Our TQA (Turner Quant Advantage) model was up well over 1% today, with AMD (one of our holdings) up more than 7.3% by itself. Considering the market was down about -0.56% today, I quite pleased with the result. Our flagship portfolio (Tactical Growth) had a good day, as well, up almost 1%. The big movers in today's action in this strategy were: AMZN (up +3.25%) and EDU (up +4.75%). Considering this model is only about 81% invested at the moment, gaining 0.98% for the day, is very nice to see.

I like the way the models are working, for the most part. Our Total Market model will only do as good as the market when we are in a bull-biased trend (that's when the 200 DMA of the Total Market Index is trending from lower left to upper right). It's struggling a bit in today's down market.

We now have the Turner Quant Advantage portfolio page up on the website. Here's the link: www.turnercapitalinvestments.com/turner-quant-advantage.

Also... I plan to host a TQA webinar on Saturday, July 18 at 12:00 noon (Eastern). The link to register is below. I will be sending out a special invitation to my entire database, so if you're interested in an introduction to the Turner Quant Advantage portfolio model, you should register asap. We only have 500 seats available. If you wait, you may not get a seat and I do not want you to miss out on this new and very successful strategy.

Click this link to register:

Have you been wondering about this market and how it can just seem to move higher all the time? If you haven't, then good for you! Why? Because it simply does not matter "why" the market is moving higher... what matters is, "are you invested in line with the market?" The fact is, this market will continue to move higher until it doesn't (but, then you already knew that, didn't you?). The key is to be bullish when the market is bullish... taking profits when the market is rolling over or bottoming; and, bearish when the market is bearish. There! I've given you the key to your complete financial success in the stock market. No need to thank me... I enjoy stating the obvious whenever possible.

And since you are way above average intelligence (I know this because you are reading my blog), you know that there is more to making money in the market than knowing the obvious... and you are right.

Recently, I had a client email me to explain that he was at odds with a couple of my holdings in one of my portfolio models. He said he had sold these stocks weeks ago because they had become over valued, their P/E ratios were too high and that I was buying at the top. Fortunately, these particular holdings have moved much higher since he emailed me his observations. I'm sure he likes the growth he is seeing in his portfolio that I am managing, but he probably still thinks I should be buying undervalued instead of (in his analysis) overvalued stocks.

I happen to love high momentum stocks that the rest of the investment world loves, as long as those stocks continue to move higher. But, these high-flyers can come crashing down, too. And, that's ok... that's why I have stops in place, just in case they do.

But... there is the rub... where do you set the stops?? Well, I have quantitative algorithms that calculate how much a stock's share price can move down and still be in an up-trend. But... there is the next rub... which trend? A daily trend? A weekly trend? A 200-dma trend? A 50-day trend? A buy-and-hold (that's a forever) trend? Well... it's definitely NOT the forever trend. That one is just too (way too) risky for my liking. Maybe the Warren Buffett's of the world can afford to lose 50% every few years, but I can't and I won't.

I'll get into the stop loss strategy in my TQA webinar in a little over a week. If you're interested in how important a role stops are in being a successful stock market investor, I encourage you to sit in on the session.

Take care and stay safe out there!

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Turner Capital

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