Year-to-Date Strategy Stats as of COB today:
+ 37.70% : Turner Quant Advantage (TQA)
+ 13.30% : Tactical Growth (TG)
+ 2.61% : Diversified Income (DIS)
+ 17.83% : Aggressive Growth (AG)
+ 0.08% : Total Market (TM)
+ 6.44% : S&P 500
As you know, if you are a client of mine, I have been warning you that the market (especially the NASDAQ) was getting long-in-the-tooth and the data were indicating a growing probability that a sell-off was becoming more and more likely.
I have also been suggesting that the closer we get to November 3, the more uncertain this market is likely to become and that the smartest course of action is to be in cash when the presidential election occurs. There is a decent probability that we will not know the outcome of the election for days and maybe weeks, unless it is a landslide for one side... a landslide is what I am certainly hoping for. If the election is contested or unknown for weeks (a situation desired by one party), then the market may 'react' very unfavorably to the high degree of uncertainty when it comes to who will be our next president.
With the probability of a pull-back growing almost daily, over the last 3 weeks I have been raising stops. This past week, I raised them to almost the tightest level possible. Then, Thursday happened, and the market plummeted. By mid-morning on Thursday, we were almost 100% cash. While we did lose about 3% (on average) in unrealized gains, the net results of the stop outs were awesome (past performance does not guarantee future returns). Here are some examples in our growth strategies:
Turner Quant Advantage realized gains:
TSCO: +42.14%; FB: +35.74%; LULU: 58.37%; GOOG: +20.91%; EPAM: +48.98%; HZNP: +17.21%; AMZN: +7.77%; CDNS: +5.71%; KR: +6.32%; TSLA: +44.40%; ZTS: +0.91%; TDOC: +9.02%
KR: +5.76%; ZTS: +0.69%; DG: +0.80%; SHW: +0.73%; CHTR: +1.59%; CDNS: +2.96%; PYPL: +5.06%; NEM: +0.90%
SSO: +11.50%; QLD: +16.91%; FIVN: +4.55%
Friday of last week continued to see the market sell off a bit, but we do not have a down-trend of sufficient strength (yet) to move completely into a bear market bias.
However... We do have a rule that supports 'some' short-selling (via inverse ETFs) if we can get some reasonable follow-through on Tuesday. I'll let you know my plan for Tuesday in my weekly Client Letter, coming out Tuesday morning.
I also want to remind you that I am hosting an "Emergency Meeting Webinar" tomorrow at 1:00 PM Central. I will walk you through where we are and how I am looking at the near-term market and well into the post-election timeframe. If you are a client of mine, this will be a great session for you to know how I am managing your capital. If you are not a client of mine (and I cannot think of a single reason why you shouldn't be), this will be a great opportunity for you to get some in-depth understanding of how our quant-based algorithms are used to move into and out-of the market to take advantage of both bull and bear cycles... and, just like this past Thursday... how we know when to take profits and move to cash.
The session is limited to 500 attendees and there are only a few seats left. The session will be oversubscribed, so if you have not registered, here is the link: "Emergency Meeting with Mike Turner"
Have a safe and happy Labor-Day Weekend!