Updated: Mar 13, 2020
Market is holding onto a bear trend that started on 2/20 when we went to cash. Total Market Index at this hour is 3.31 EMs (Standard Deviations) below last Friday’s 200 dma. At 3.5 EMs below the 200 dma, the first oversold signal is triggered. Will have to wait until the close on Friday to assess the results of data. At 4 EMs below the 200dma, we would begin hedging our bear investment bias with some bull-biased trades. The only fly in this ointment is the speed at which the market has dropped in just the past 3 weeks. While many think the sell-off is orderly, it looks more like panic selling to me.
The big sell-off today (more than -4% on the S&P 500) generated a lot of profits for all 4 of the momentum strategies (Tactical Growth, Total Market, ULTRA and ULTRA-MAX). The big winner was ULTRA-MAX, up more than 9% just today.
I went to cash in all portfolios except Diversified Income, at the close today. If the market holds to its most recent pattern, I expect to see a bounce tomorrow and will be selling into that bounce with rebuying our inverse ETFs. The trend is bearish and I want to be holding inverse ETFs in this market.
Many are expecting the market to retest the December 2018 low, but no one knows for sure what the market is going to do. It will continue on this bear trend until it doesn’t. But, the almost daily massive volatility swings in the market need to be managed if possible. That’s why I went to cash today at the close. That put a lot profit in the bank for my clients.
Looking forward to tomorrow’s market.