Trendlines Over Headlines: Why We're All In on April 28th, 2025

This morning, the market opened basically flat. The next decision-making datapoint will be this coming Friday's close.

Last Friday, the market signaled a bullish trend is underway (see TMI chart, below). Since we were in cash (money markets) at the time, the signal of a bullish trend means we go all in with a 50/50 mix of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs for the 1x, 2x and 3x models.

The exit, for the present, will depend on how the market moves below the 86-wma.

It is important for you to keep the following in mind... We did not put your capital to work in the market because we have some insight or crystal ball that says the market is going to boom higher in the future. Some prognosticators are saying Trump's tariff strategy will fail. Others say it will open the doors for the next greatest economic boom our country has ever seen. But... here is the critical thing that you should understand about how we manage your money: It does not matter WHY the market will be trending in the future one way or the other. What matters is HOW the market is trending right now!

Trendlines matter... Headlines do not!

Since this letter goes out to clients as well as those who are thinking about becoming a client of Turner Capital... I respectfully ask those of you who are thinking about engaging Turner Capital to manage a portion of your investment capital, to consider the following... If your current advisor is like the vast majority of financial advisors, you are likely following a traditional buy-and-hold philosophy — the idea that investors should simply endure every market cycle, staying fully invested no matter what. It’s a comforting narrative in theory, but in practice, it asks investors to accept devastating losses in bear markets and simply hope that time will heal all wounds.

The reality is much harsher. Investors don’t live in theoretical 40-year time horizons. They live in the real world — where 30%, 40%, or 50% losses impact retirement timelines, college funding, and the ability to meet real financial goals. Recovering from major losses is not just a mathematical challenge — it’s an emotional and behavioral one.

That’s why our approach is different — fundamentally different.

We don’t just 'hold on and hope.' We use a disciplined, rules-based investment strategy that is designed to capitalize on both bull markets and bear markets. When the market trends are positive, we invest with index ETFs to maximize growth. When bear market trends emerge, we don't just reduce risk — we move proactively into inverse index ETFs designed to grow client assets as the market declines.

In other words: Where buy-and-hold simply absorbs the pain of bear markets, our strategy seeks to profit from them.

One of these days, this market will move into a protracted, devastating bearish cycle. We don't know when and we don't care why. We simply know that bear markets are a fact of life and one will occur at some point in our future. Right now, we are in the early stage of a bullish trend. We know this current trend will last exactly until it doesn't. Will the next trend be the beginning of a devastating bear market? No one knows, but this we can tell you... Unlike the traditional advisory world, we look forward to bear markets just as much (or more) than we do bull markets. Why? Because we opportunistically trade both to the benefit of our clients.

THE NOISE:

Alex Goodwin, Vice President

The major indexes found their footing last week as trade talks continued to move forward. Big name earnings reports were also a much-needed boost if this market continues upward to finish out the month.

The week began with a sharp rally led by Alphabet and Nvidia, both reporting earnings that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Alphabet announced a 12% revenue jump and a 46% profit surge while Nvidia continued its dominance in the AI space, with a 78% year-over-year increase in revenue, although they warned of upcoming export-related charges. The S&P 500 finished the week up 4.5%, the Dow gained 2.5%, and the Nasdaq led the way with a 6.7% jump.

The tariff noise wasn’t as loud last week but it continues to bring a mixed bag of headlines. Last week Trump commented that negotiations on a tariff deal with China were ongoing and also said "We're going to live together very happily and ideally work together.". Following this comment China’s Foreign Ministry denied any recent communication between the countries presidents. At this point in time, it is unclear whether negotiations are ongoing or not.

Once again, this week we intend to let trendlines govern our decisions, not headlines. We are certainly encouraged by the market positives like softening trade rhetoric and strong earnings, but we know that these events make a small difference in the overall trend of the market. And while uncertainty is always present in the markets, the trendlines will always tell us a more accurate story.

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